Home-State Advantage May Not Help GOP Candidates

Much is being made of a new poll showing former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the Michigan GOP presidential primary race because of speculation that Romney's ties to the state should give him the advantage.

But experts say many variables contribute to so-called 'home' state advantages and ultimately the potential impact of such ties hover in the margins.

"Most often when the candidate is currently or very recently serving in the state it can be a big boost; but if the connection is more distant, and it is overshadowed by other factors, such as ideology or momentum factors, it can be less powerful," says Audrey Haynes, a political science professor at the University of Georgia.

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Romney was born in Detroit, grew up in Michigan, and his father served as governor of Michigan in the 1960's. That's been enough of a connection for the media to dub the state as a place Romney presumably has home-town ties, thus making a loss there all the bigger a rebuke of his candidacy. Romney used Michigan as a launching pad for his failed presidential campaign four years ago.

The real takeaway from Romney's potential weakness in Michigan is that it continues a pattern of failure to connect with voters, says Haynes.

"The interesting thing here is that a state, which should be an easy win for Romney, may require some work. Same thing for Gingrich," Haynes says. "If the media sets expectations due to the home state status the candidates enjoy in this state, then a win may equate to a number they may not achieve. Then the win gives them no momentum or potential slows them down."

Leonard Steinhorn, public communications professor at American University, says the media does play a role in hyping expectations for candidates in certain states, but only when candidates are complicit.

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"The media wouldn't necessarily play along with it if he weren't helping to promote it," he says of Romney in Michigan.

Peter Brown, assistant director of the polling institute at Quinnipiac University, says claims of closeness to a place by candidates matter less than actually showing up to campaign.

"Whether Romney wins or loses he has some tie there, but it's not like he's been there in Michigan very much," he says. "Certainly it is good for Romney that he has ties there and the media will certainly make something of it if he does not win there."

Haynes says the real momentum for candidates in individual states comes in how closely the state's electorate identifies with them, homegrown or not. Her analysis of recent poll data in Georgia shows that while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who represented the state in Congress, is currently the favorite, his close ties to the state might actually work against him.

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"The Georgia Republican base is very conservative, particularly on matters relating to religious issues, family and ethics issues," she says. "While Gingrich has an advantage here because it is his home state, one disadvantage is that people know him very well, too; his warts as well as his accomplishments."

"Many may feel closer to Santorum on issues and Gingrich's electability, as well as his momentum, numbers seem to have declined," Haynes adds.

The home state expectations game already took down one GOP presidential hopeful, Rep. Michele Bachmann. Though a congressional representative from Minnesota, Bachmann played up her connection to Iowa as she stumped in her birth state. As a result, her sixth-place finish dealt her candidacy a staggering blow it couldn't recover from.

"If a candidate is a third-tier candidate, or an agenda seeker with no viability, it doesn't matter if a state is their home state or not," Haynes says. "[Rep.] Ron Paul is not likely to take Texas, even though he is serving there and has strong roots there. This shows you that the dynamics of the race and the popularity of the candidate trump home state status."

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Email: rmetzler@usnews.com

Twitter: @rebekahmetzler